The crash of a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi could hardly have occurred at a more unstable moment for the Islamic Republic.
Sunday’s episode left the fate of Raisi – who many analysts believed was destined to become Iran’s next supreme leader – uncertain against a backdrop of economic misery, widespread public discontent and geopolitical tensions that had pushed Israel and Iran to trade rare direct attacks.
If the president dies, the vice president takes over and must hold an election within 50 days, said Ali Vaez, Iran director of the International Crisis Group, an independent conflict prevention agency.
This, he said, would be “a major challenge for a country that is in the midst of a serious internal legitimacy crisis and dagger-pointing with Israel and the United States in the region.”
Over the past two years, the country has witnessed an internal uprising, Iran’s currency plummeting to an all-time low, water shortages exacerbated by climate change and the deadliest terrorist attack since the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979.
March’s parliamentary elections showed how severe the legitimacy crisis had become for Iran’s ruling class after millions of Iranians boycotted the vote and a far-right faction made notable gains.
“This simply shows how unpopular the Islamic Republic currently is at home,” Vaez said, describing “an ever-deepening rift between the state and society.”
The economy remains in chaos due to US sanctions, mismanagement and corruption. Iran’s currency fell to a record low in late March, just as its people celebrated the Persian New Year. Inflation in the country has been painfully high for years, often above 30%.
The prospects of a return to an agreement with the West to limit Iran’s nuclear program, which would lead to an easing of sanctions, appear weak.
In 2022, the death of a 22-year-old woman, Mahsa Amini, in the custody of the country’s morality police, triggered months-long protests nationwide, led by women and girls who removed their headscarves in defiance and called for the end of Islamism. The government of the Republic. The government responded with a violent crackdown, just as it did to quell protests in 2019.
And in January, two explosions in the city of Kerman killed more than 80 people and injured more than 200. Islamic State, Iran’s avowed enemy, claimed responsibility.
The attacks between Israel and Iran this spring were the latest development to push the country to a boiling point – and represented a departure from the shadow war the two countries have waged for decades, raising fears of a regional conflagration that pulsates from Gaza.
Iran supports and helps arm Hamas, the Palestinian group that led the Oct. 7 assault on Israel, which responded with a bombing campaign and invasion of the Gaza Strip, killing more than 35,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health authorities. Iran also supports armed groups in the region that have declared their solidarity in the battle against Israel, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi militia.
But analysts say Iran is eager to avoid being dragged into an all-out war.
In April, Iran responded to a deadly Israeli attack on its embassy compound in Damascus, Syria, launching a barrage of more than 300 drones and missiles directly at Israel for the first time. Few Iranian drones and missiles found their targets, a fact that military experts and defense officials said was likely planned.
The incident also raises questions about who will become Iran’s supreme leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 85, Vaez said. Raisi was seen as a possible successor.
Vaez said Raisi was seen as “predictable for the system – and that is why he was chosen as president and was groomed for the top job.”
Farnaz Fassihi contributed to the reporting.
